-
"I shall be fully convinced... that he [President Polk] is deeply conscious of being in the wrong: that he feels the blood of this war, like the blood of Abel, is crying to Heaven against him."
~ Abraham Lincoln, 12 January 1848
"That's what I'm opposed to - a dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason, but on passion; not on principle, but on politics."
~ Barack Obama, 2 October 2002
It is impossible to hear Barack Obama speak without realizing that he was a legal professor. People say that Obama's rallies are all fluff and no substance; not so. He could turn on the fluff to unprecedented heights if he wished. His supporters have a messianic quality about them; they follow Obama unreservedly and remind me of how blind Bartimaeus felt after Jesus restored his sight. Barack's public speech is much more measured, careful, and precise, even, at times, bordering on pedantic. Yet his grasp on the issues is formidable.
Obama was the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. Lincoln, too, went into the law, at a time when the sons of backwoods, backwards Kentucky farmers were not seen as top-notch legal material. Both men lived and worked close to the people they served, held low-level political offices, and worked with clients from the very richest to the very poorest.
Lincoln and Obama also share deep, resonant, feisty political voices. Contemporaries often spoke of the effect Lincoln's slow, rolling voice could have on a crowd. Obama's raspy baritone, which conveys a hint of his Kenyan ancestry, is his best political instrument.
As the epigraphs show, both men hated war and weren't afraid to risk their political lives to stand against the current and oppose wars of choice. (In the medium term, California could have been purchased from Mexico.) Lincoln, though, raised an army to suppress Southern secession and led the country through the trials of the Civil War. Obama correctly advocates a phased withdrawal from Iraq, but he would be just as steady in the midst of crisis.
We need a president who reminds us of our better angels. Barack Obama is that man.
-
Friday, February 22, 2008
February 19: Wisconsin primary; Hawaii caucus (D)
-
Wisconsin primary:
Democrats
Obama 58
Clinton 41
Republicans
McCain 55
Huckabee 37
Paul 5
Hawaii caucus (D):
Obama 76
Clinton 24
-
It's over.
Wisconsin was Hillary's last chance to blunt Obama: Midwestern, industrial, union-heavy, older. I half expected her to win. Then the results came in: 54% Obama... 56% Obama... and ever-widening to 59.5% Obama. When people see Obama and listen to him, they vote for him. Hillary wishes she had the same effect.
At the post-election party at Bar Louie on Water Street (where I met Mayor Tom Barrett and a couple of Wisconsin state representatives), the atmosphere was electric. News cameras crowded the back bar that had been reserved for the Obama party. At its peak, about 200 people filled the room, no doubt in violation of the fire code.
The next morning, the Teamsters endorsed Obama - a critical endorsement for Ohio and Texas, but, symbolically, a sign that Hillary's "base" has irrevocably crumpled.
Obama's big win in Hawaii, where he was born and went to high school, surprised nobody.
Among the Republicans, John McCain kept trudging towards the nomination with another win in Wisconsin. Mike Huckabee, who has chosen option #2 (see my "What's Next" post from Feb. 7), is having a ball running for President on the cheap and gaining national visibility, though he is not likely to become McCain's VP nominee.
-
Wisconsin primary:
Democrats
Obama 58
Clinton 41
Republicans
McCain 55
Huckabee 37
Paul 5
Hawaii caucus (D):
Obama 76
Clinton 24
-
It's over.
Wisconsin was Hillary's last chance to blunt Obama: Midwestern, industrial, union-heavy, older. I half expected her to win. Then the results came in: 54% Obama... 56% Obama... and ever-widening to 59.5% Obama. When people see Obama and listen to him, they vote for him. Hillary wishes she had the same effect.
At the post-election party at Bar Louie on Water Street (where I met Mayor Tom Barrett and a couple of Wisconsin state representatives), the atmosphere was electric. News cameras crowded the back bar that had been reserved for the Obama party. At its peak, about 200 people filled the room, no doubt in violation of the fire code.
The next morning, the Teamsters endorsed Obama - a critical endorsement for Ohio and Texas, but, symbolically, a sign that Hillary's "base" has irrevocably crumpled.
Obama's big win in Hawaii, where he was born and went to high school, surprised nobody.
Among the Republicans, John McCain kept trudging towards the nomination with another win in Wisconsin. Mike Huckabee, who has chosen option #2 (see my "What's Next" post from Feb. 7), is having a ball running for President on the cheap and gaining national visibility, though he is not likely to become McCain's VP nominee.
-
February 12: The "Potomac Primary" (R)
-
Maryland:
McCain 55
Huckabee 29
Romney 7
Paul 6
Virginia:
McCain 50
Huckabee 41
Paul 4
Romney 4
D.C:
McCain 68
Huckabee 17
Paul 8
Romney 6
-
Mike Huckabee's attempt to make John McCain's nomination anything but a formality is no more. Huckabee tried hard to win Virginia, but he couldn't draw votes in the D.C. exurbs or in Richmond; as usual, his support centered on isolated rural counties.
-
Maryland:
McCain 55
Huckabee 29
Romney 7
Paul 6
Virginia:
McCain 50
Huckabee 41
Paul 4
Romney 4
D.C:
McCain 68
Huckabee 17
Paul 8
Romney 6
-
Mike Huckabee's attempt to make John McCain's nomination anything but a formality is no more. Huckabee tried hard to win Virginia, but he couldn't draw votes in the D.C. exurbs or in Richmond; as usual, his support centered on isolated rural counties.
-
February 12: The "Potomac Primary" (D)
-
Maryland:
Obama 60
Clinton 37
Virginia:
Obama 64
Clinton 35
D.C:
Obama 75
Clinton 24
-
The results speak for themselves. With these victories, Obama, by most counts, took over the delegate lead from Clinton.
-
Maryland:
Obama 60
Clinton 37
Virginia:
Obama 64
Clinton 35
D.C:
Obama 75
Clinton 24
-
The results speak for themselves. With these victories, Obama, by most counts, took over the delegate lead from Clinton.
-
Sunday, February 10, 2008
February 9: Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington (R)
-
Kansas caucus:
Huckabee 60
McCain 24
Paul 11
Romney 3
Louisiana primary:
Huckabee 43
McCain 42
Romney 7
Paul 5
Washington caucus: *See below.
-
Rather late for an energetic stop-McCain campaign, isn't it? This reminds me of a failed coup d'etat in minature. It's not going to succeed because the Great Cheney Purge failed to drive out all the sane members from the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee, one of the sane people who stuck it out, has to be smiling right now: he alone is accruing all the benefits from the combined and considerable efforts of the nutty wing of his party. He rolled over McCain in Kansas's caucuses and eked out a narrow 2,000-vote victory in Louisiana.
Then there's Washington. Here's the bizarre published results:
Washington caucus (87% reporting):
McCain 26
Huckabee 24
Paul 21
Romney 16
Uncommitted 13
On the basis of the results listed above, the Washington state Republican Party chair, Luke Esser, declared McCain the "winner". Really, Mr. Esser? You've got 13% of the vote - of a closed Republican caucus, mind you - uncounted! And it's been 36 hours after the fact! Huckabee, while careful not to say anything untoward towards McCain, filed legal suit against Esser and his Washington State charlatans today.
There are peculiarities down the ballot, too. Given that Mitt Romney won 3% in Kansas and 7% in Louisiana, it's not improbable that he won 16% in Washington. (It seems like the best thing Romney could do was to drop out. Pious Mormon that he is, I wonder if he's laying awake at night thinking that if he pandered to Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh even more than he did, without moral scruples, he'd be the prospective nominee right now instead of McCain.) But the 13% for "Uncommitted" makes no sense to me. Leaving aside Michigan's Democratic primary, when both Obama and Edwards instructed their supporters to vote Uncommitted, that line has never earned more than 5%. The fishy smell is overpowering.
-
Kansas caucus:
Huckabee 60
McCain 24
Paul 11
Romney 3
Louisiana primary:
Huckabee 43
McCain 42
Romney 7
Paul 5
Washington caucus: *See below.
-
Rather late for an energetic stop-McCain campaign, isn't it? This reminds me of a failed coup d'etat in minature. It's not going to succeed because the Great Cheney Purge failed to drive out all the sane members from the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee, one of the sane people who stuck it out, has to be smiling right now: he alone is accruing all the benefits from the combined and considerable efforts of the nutty wing of his party. He rolled over McCain in Kansas's caucuses and eked out a narrow 2,000-vote victory in Louisiana.
Then there's Washington. Here's the bizarre published results:
Washington caucus (87% reporting):
McCain 26
Huckabee 24
Paul 21
Romney 16
Uncommitted 13
On the basis of the results listed above, the Washington state Republican Party chair, Luke Esser, declared McCain the "winner". Really, Mr. Esser? You've got 13% of the vote - of a closed Republican caucus, mind you - uncounted! And it's been 36 hours after the fact! Huckabee, while careful not to say anything untoward towards McCain, filed legal suit against Esser and his Washington State charlatans today.
There are peculiarities down the ballot, too. Given that Mitt Romney won 3% in Kansas and 7% in Louisiana, it's not improbable that he won 16% in Washington. (It seems like the best thing Romney could do was to drop out. Pious Mormon that he is, I wonder if he's laying awake at night thinking that if he pandered to Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh even more than he did, without moral scruples, he'd be the prospective nominee right now instead of McCain.) But the 13% for "Uncommitted" makes no sense to me. Leaving aside Michigan's Democratic primary, when both Obama and Edwards instructed their supporters to vote Uncommitted, that line has never earned more than 5%. The fishy smell is overpowering.
-
February 9-10: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and Maine (D)
-
Louisiana primary:
Obama 57
Clinton 36
Nebraska caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 32
Washington caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 31
Maine caucus:
Obama 59
Clinton 40
-
Oof. Obama won four widely dispersed states by overwhelming margins. Hillary couldn't break the 40% barrier in any one of the contests. Now she's adrift in deep water. Obama is drawing near Clinton in the delegate count (CNN is scoring it 1148-1121 for Hillary), and the "Potomac primary" on Tuesday will enable Obama to take his first lead of the campaign.
Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all have young, suburban, partly African-American, and highly educated Democratic bases, exactly coinciding with Obama's core constituences. Hillary, once again, will be hard-pressed to touch 40% on Tuesday. Then, on February 19, there is a caucus in Hawaii and the Wisconsin primary. This blogger is going all out on the ground for Obama on that day! More soberly, it might be Hillary's last stand; if she can't win Wisconsin, she won't be likely to win anywhere else. Peggy Noonan, Ronald Reagan's onetime speechwriter, has speculated that the end is nearer for Hillary that most pundits realize.
-
Louisiana primary:
Obama 57
Clinton 36
Nebraska caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 32
Washington caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 31
Maine caucus:
Obama 59
Clinton 40
-
Oof. Obama won four widely dispersed states by overwhelming margins. Hillary couldn't break the 40% barrier in any one of the contests. Now she's adrift in deep water. Obama is drawing near Clinton in the delegate count (CNN is scoring it 1148-1121 for Hillary), and the "Potomac primary" on Tuesday will enable Obama to take his first lead of the campaign.
Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all have young, suburban, partly African-American, and highly educated Democratic bases, exactly coinciding with Obama's core constituences. Hillary, once again, will be hard-pressed to touch 40% on Tuesday. Then, on February 19, there is a caucus in Hawaii and the Wisconsin primary. This blogger is going all out on the ground for Obama on that day! More soberly, it might be Hillary's last stand; if she can't win Wisconsin, she won't be likely to win anywhere else. Peggy Noonan, Ronald Reagan's onetime speechwriter, has speculated that the end is nearer for Hillary that most pundits realize.
-
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Why our primary system rules
-
Since my professional desire is to become a university professor, I suppose I will soon be paid to come up with counter-intuitive political observations. In case any tenured faculty read this blog - here's one such observation in advance.
The great benefit of the United States' primary-caucus system, as it now stands, is that it enfranchises and empowers large numbers of citizens who are made into near-permanent electoral minorities in November by the structure of the Electoral College. On Election Day, South Carolina's Democrats could uniformly vote for bell hooks (heh) and it wouldn't matter at all; the Republican nominee would almost certainly prevail. Likewise, New York's Republicans could all vote for Barney Frank, only to watch the Democratic nominee win.
But in a 50-state primary-caucus system, every state's preferences matter (mindful of population, of course) and not just the preferences of a relative handful of swing states. South Carolina's Democrats, or New York's Republicans, become potent political forces who have a meaningful impact on the selection of a nominee. Isn't this good for democracy compared to a national or regional super-primary? To borrow from Robert Dahl, it increases contestation (there are 100 distinct contests), inclusiveness (regional candidates and favorite sons are free to run; most modern contested major-party primaries have had at least a half-dozen candidates), and information (retail politics matters relatively more than mass-media saturation blitzes). Think about it.
-
Since my professional desire is to become a university professor, I suppose I will soon be paid to come up with counter-intuitive political observations. In case any tenured faculty read this blog - here's one such observation in advance.
The great benefit of the United States' primary-caucus system, as it now stands, is that it enfranchises and empowers large numbers of citizens who are made into near-permanent electoral minorities in November by the structure of the Electoral College. On Election Day, South Carolina's Democrats could uniformly vote for bell hooks (heh) and it wouldn't matter at all; the Republican nominee would almost certainly prevail. Likewise, New York's Republicans could all vote for Barney Frank, only to watch the Democratic nominee win.
But in a 50-state primary-caucus system, every state's preferences matter (mindful of population, of course) and not just the preferences of a relative handful of swing states. South Carolina's Democrats, or New York's Republicans, become potent political forces who have a meaningful impact on the selection of a nominee. Isn't this good for democracy compared to a national or regional super-primary? To borrow from Robert Dahl, it increases contestation (there are 100 distinct contests), inclusiveness (regional candidates and favorite sons are free to run; most modern contested major-party primaries have had at least a half-dozen candidates), and information (retail politics matters relatively more than mass-media saturation blitzes). Think about it.
-
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)