Sunday, February 10, 2008

February 9-10: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and Maine (D)

Louisiana primary:
Obama 57
Clinton 36

Nebraska caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 32

Washington caucus:
Obama 68
Clinton 31

Maine caucus:
Obama 59
Clinton 40

Oof. Obama won four widely dispersed states by overwhelming margins. Hillary couldn't break the 40% barrier in any one of the contests. Now she's adrift in deep water. Obama is drawing near Clinton in the delegate count (CNN is scoring it 1148-1121 for Hillary), and the "Potomac primary" on Tuesday will enable Obama to take his first lead of the campaign.

Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all have young, suburban, partly African-American, and highly educated Democratic bases, exactly coinciding with Obama's core constituences. Hillary, once again, will be hard-pressed to touch 40% on Tuesday. Then, on February 19, there is a caucus in Hawaii and the Wisconsin primary. This blogger is going all out on the ground for Obama on that day! More soberly, it might be Hillary's last stand; if she can't win Wisconsin, she won't be likely to win anywhere else. Peggy Noonan, Ronald Reagan's onetime speechwriter, has speculated that the end is nearer for Hillary that most pundits realize.

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