Thursday, February 7, 2008

Super Tuesday (Democrats)

Won states (60% or more of the total vote):
Obama 8
Clinton 1

Won states (less than 60% of the total vote):
Clinton 8
Obama 5

Obama 42

New York:
Clinton 57
Obama 40

Once again, the tsunami for Obama failed to materialize, but he earned a full-blooded tidal wave in his favor on Tuesday night. He won more states than Hillary (13 to 9), and, as the table above shows, won more states by large margins than Hillary. Obama also eked out narrow symbolic pluralities in Connecticut and Missouri. He held serve against Clinton, a significant victory when one considers the residual strength of the Clinton brand name and the national infrastructure he built from scratch to oppose Hillary.

California and New York deserve special emphasis. Pollster John Zogby had predicted an Obama victory; then again, he also predicted a Romney victory, so he has some humble pie to eat. With massive early voting (which also favored Hillary in Florida's non-contest), Obama had too steep a hill to climb. In an open primary this evening, Obama would likely have a slight edge. In New York, her home state, Hillary got 57% - not good: it's the same percentage she got against a blank line and Dennis Kucinich in Michigan.

CNN now counts 1,033 delegates for Clinton against 937 for Obama. The next week shapes up highly favorably for Obama. Over the weekend, there are caucuses in Washington, Maine, and Nebraska and a primary in Louisiana. Obama's support is strongest thus far in the Plains states, the South, and the West, so all but tiny Maine look good for him. Next Tuesday's primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. bode well for him too, since Beltway Democrats tend to be affluent and activist, the cohorts that lean strongly towards Obama. The race continues without a clear resolution!

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