Thursday, February 7, 2008

Super Tuesday (Republicans)

Won states (50% or more of the total vote):
McCain 3
Romney 3*
Huckabee 2

Won states (less than 50% of the total vote):
McCain 6
Romney 4*
Huckabee 3

McCain 42
Romney 34*
Huckabee 12

New York:
McCain 51
Romney 28*
Huckabee 11

*Romney subsequently dropped out of the race.
It's not just that John McCain won more states than his two main opponents; it's where he won. Romney, as expected, won the Snow Belt (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah; not a warm-weather state among them!) and Huckabee won the South (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia). McCain, though, won the real prizes: the most populous states. California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Missouri, and Arizona, all of which have at least 50 delegates, winner-take-all, went to McCain. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the end of the affair.

Mitt Romney, after two months of trying to be all things for all people, dropped out of the race, leaving Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul as the only remaining candidates. Despite the widespread antipathy towards McCain within the Republican Party, their winner-take-all mode of delegate allocation stands in the way. Even if all of Romney's delegates moved over to Huckabee, McCain would still hold a 2-to-1 lead in the delegate count with the Southern states, Huckabee's natural base of support, largely played out. John McCain, amazingly, can relax and plan for November well before the ice melts.

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